PRECOG

Terms of Service

Version 1.0 — Effective March 25, 2026

1. Acceptance of Terms

By creating an account on Precog, accessing the Precog mobile application (the “App”), or using any of our services (collectively, the “Service”), you agree to be bound by these Terms of Service (“Terms”). If you do not agree to these Terms, do not use the Service.

You must be at least 18 years of age to use the Service. By creating an account, you represent and warrant that you are at least 18 years old. You must accept these Terms, our Privacy Policy, and our Community Rules before participating in any forecasting activity on the platform.

2. Description of Service

Precog is a consumer forecasting game and reputation network. Users make probabilistic forecasts on real-world questions, build a public track record through the Precog Index (PX), and compete in monthly Episodes and weekly competitions.

Precog is NOT a prediction market, sportsbook, or gambling product. Users do not deposit money. Users do not trade against each other. There are no user-funded prize pools. There is no wagering of any kind. Precog is a skill-based forecasting competition where prizes are awarded by Precog based on demonstrated forecasting accuracy and participation.

3. Eligibility

To use the Service, you must:

  • Be at least 18 years of age;
  • Be capable of forming a binding contract under applicable law;
  • Not be barred from using the Service under any applicable law or regulation;
  • Maintain only one account per person.

The Service is void where prohibited by law. It is your responsibility to determine whether your participation in Precog complies with all applicable laws in your jurisdiction. [LEGAL COUNSEL REVIEW: State-by-state exclusions for skill-based prize competitions may be required. Certain states (e.g., Arizona, Connecticut, Maryland, North Dakota, Vermont) have specific contest/sweepstakes rules that may apply.]

4. Accounts

To use the Service, you must create an account by verifying your phone number via one-time passcode (OTP). You will choose a unique handle (3–20 characters, alphanumeric and underscores) and optionally set a display name.

You agree that:

  • You will maintain only one account;
  • You will not share your account credentials or transfer your account to another person;
  • You are responsible for all activity that occurs under your account;
  • You will promptly notify us at support@precog.gg if you believe your account has been compromised.

Precog reserves the right to suspend or terminate any account at any time for violations of these Terms or for any other reason at our discretion.

5. Forecasting Rules

Precog offers four types of forecasting questions, each with specific rules for how forecasts are submitted:

  • Yes/No: Set a probability between 1% and 99% that an event will occur.
  • Multiple Choice: Distribute exactly 100 probability points across all available options.
  • Numeric: Provide a point estimate with a confidence range.
  • Over/Under: Set a probability that the outcome will be over or under a specified line.

Forecasts may be updated at any time while a question is open. Once a question locks, all forecasts are frozen and can no longer be changed. Lock times are displayed on each question.

Questions may be voided at Precog’s discretion if the resolution criteria cannot be fairly determined, if the answer becomes prematurely knowable, or for other integrity reasons. Voided questions do not affect scores or standings.

6. Scoring and Reputation

All forecasts are scored using proper scoring rules — mathematical formulas that reward honest, well-calibrated probability assessments. Different question types use appropriate scoring methods (including Brier scores and continuous ranked probability scores).

Your Precog Index (PX) is an all-time reputation score derived from your forecasting performance. PX is calculated deterministically using statistical methods including Bayesian shrinkage (which means early results don’t permanently define your score) and domain-specific weighting.

PX maps to a 10-tier reputation ladder (from Static to Oracle). Tiers are derived from PX — they are not manually assigned. See our Community Rules for the full tier table.

Precog reserves the right to adjust scoring methodology, tier thresholds, and related parameters at any time with reasonable notice. Such changes will be applied prospectively and will not retroactively alter scores already recorded.

7. Prizes and Rewards

All players can earn from their first resolved question. There are no tier gates on basic participation, scoring, or reputation accumulation. Higher tiers unlock eligibility for progressively richer reward pools.

Precog offers prizes across several competition layers:

  • Weekly: Small fixed prizes, sponsor rewards, badges, and recognition.
  • Episode (Monthly): Mid-sized cash prizes or sponsor equivalents, episode winner badges, and featured profile treatment.
  • Season (Annual): Larger prizes that may be introduced as the platform matures.

Episode Prize Eligibility

To be eligible for Episode prizes, you must answer at least 85% of eligible Core questions during the Episode and have at least 20 resolved question-weight in the result set. Episode prize pools are unlocked based on the number of qualified finishers, not the total number of registered users.

Important Prize Terms

  • NO PURCHASE NECESSARY to enter or win. A purchase will not improve your chances of winning.
  • Precog determines prize amounts and structures at its sole discretion. Prize pools, structures, and amounts may vary by Episode.
  • Prizes are void where prohibited by law.
  • Winners are responsible for all applicable taxes on prizes received. Precog may require tax documentation (e.g., W-9) before distributing prizes above applicable thresholds.
  • Precog reserves the right to withhold prizes in cases of suspected fraud, manipulation, or violation of these Terms.

[LEGAL COUNSEL REVIEW: Depending on jurisdiction, Precog may need to file official contest/sweepstakes rules with state authorities. Review whether skill-based competition exemptions apply. Confirm tax withholding thresholds ($600 IRS reporting) and whether bonding is required in certain states.]

8. Intellectual Property

The Precog platform, including its design, scoring algorithms, data models, software, and documentation, is the intellectual property of Precog and its licensors.

By submitting forecasts, you grant Precog a worldwide, non-exclusive, royalty-free license to use your forecasts in aggregate form for the purpose of computing Community Reads, Signal Reads, leaderboard standings, and other platform features. Individual forecasts are never sold or shared with third parties outside of these aggregate computations.

The Community Read (aggregate forecast) and Signal Read (credibility-weighted forecast) are proprietary Precog data products.

9. Prohibited Conduct

You agree not to:

  • Create or maintain more than one account;
  • Use bots, scripts, or automated tools to submit or modify forecasts;
  • Collude with other users to manipulate forecasts, scores, or leaderboard standings;
  • Coordinate with others to manipulate the Community Read or any other aggregate metric;
  • Abuse the referral or invite system;
  • Attempt to reverse-engineer, extract, or reconstruct the Signal Read or any proprietary scoring algorithms;
  • Interfere with or disrupt the Service or its underlying infrastructure;
  • Use the Service for any purpose that is unlawful or prohibited by these Terms.

10. Suspension and Termination

Precog may, at its sole discretion, take any of the following actions if it determines that you have violated these Terms or engaged in conduct that threatens the integrity of the platform:

  • Freeze your prize eligibility (temporarily or permanently);
  • Suspend your account;
  • Permanently terminate your account;
  • Withhold or revoke prizes.

Precog is not obligated to disclose its specific methods for detecting violations. If you believe an enforcement action was taken in error, you may appeal by contacting support@precog.gg.

11. Disclaimers

THE SERVICE IS PROVIDED “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE,” WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, OR NON-INFRINGEMENT.

Without limiting the foregoing, Precog does not warrant that:

  • The Service will be uninterrupted, error-free, or secure;
  • Any specific prizes will be available in any given Episode;
  • Questions will not be voided or modified;
  • Scoring calculations will be free from error.

Precog does not provide financial, investment, or gambling advice. Forecasting on Precog is a game of skill and should not be relied upon for any financial decision-making.

12. Limitation of Liability

TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, IN NO EVENT SHALL PRECOG, ITS OFFICERS, DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES, OR AGENTS BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, OR PUNITIVE DAMAGES, OR ANY LOSS OF PROFITS OR REVENUES, WHETHER INCURRED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, OR ANY LOSS OF DATA, USE, GOODWILL, OR OTHER INTANGIBLE LOSSES, RESULTING FROM:

  • Your use of or inability to use the Service;
  • Any unauthorized access to or use of our servers;
  • Any errors or omissions in scoring or prize calculations;
  • Any conduct of any third party on the Service, including other users.

[LEGAL COUNSEL REVIEW: Confirm appropriate liability cap for a prize-awarding platform. Consider whether a cap equal to prizes earned in the prior 12 months or a fixed dollar amount is more appropriate.]

13. Dispute Resolution

[LEGAL COUNSEL REVIEW: This section requires attorney drafting. Key decisions needed: (1) Binding arbitration vs. litigation — if arbitration, specify provider (AAA, JAMS) and rules; (2) Small claims court opt-out provision; (3) Class action waiver; (4) Governing law and jurisdiction (recommend Delaware); (5) Informal dispute resolution period before formal proceedings (30–60 day notice period). Note: Class action waivers and mandatory arbitration are standard for consumer apps with prize components but must be drafted carefully to be enforceable.]

For disputes related to question resolutions (i.e., you believe a question was resolved incorrectly), please see the dispute process outlined in our Community Rules.

14. Changes to Terms

Precog reserves the right to modify these Terms at any time. When we make material changes, we will:

  • Update the version number and effective date at the top of this page;
  • Notify you through the App;
  • Require you to re-accept the updated Terms before continuing to use the Service.

For non-material changes (e.g., clarifications or formatting updates), your continued use of the Service after the effective date constitutes acceptance of the revised Terms.

15. Contact

If you have questions about these Terms, please contact us at:

Email: support@precog.gg